Next Week’s Freaks: Predicting the Future in NBA Overachievement

Ramrod’s my name, and predicting the future’s my game. When someone asks me ‘Hey, according to your very helpful Yahoo competitive totals, I noticed that I was a little low on 3PTM last week. Which widely available waiver-wire option would be the best solution for my splashing woes?’, I merely send them a link, because I am terrified of using my mouth to converse. Online correspondence, however? I’m all for it!! To the predictions!! PS. I only recommend players that are owned in fewer than 40% of Yahoo leagues. This is chess, not checkers SON!!

PG

Reggie Jackson – Oklahoma City – PTS – Owned in 29%

Mr. December should win Mr. Consistent because his game logs look as similar as real logs. From a distance, of course. Wordsmith. Real talk, I am personally offended he isn’t owned in more leagues. Increasing his rate of ownership gives me purpose. Hoard his PTS while they’re still available.

Kirk Hinrich – Chicago – AST + STL – Owned in 33%

Derrick Rose is not coming back. Put your opinion of wrist tattoos aside and roster this man. Although he’s currently passing to terrible, terrible players, Jimmy Butler made his return this weekend and Luol Deng should join them very soon. They will splash. Kirk will enable their splashing. Enable Kirk enable you. Roster this man.

SG

Jeremy Lamb – Oklahoma City – 3PTM + PTS – Owned in 5%

Sleepy Brown, the man worth a James Harden, has been pretty productive the past couple weeks. Well, as productive as a colossal trade bust can be. If Thabo Sefolosha continues to have knee issues, Lamb should get enough open looks to be a decent source of 3s + PTS.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Detroit – 3PTM – Owned in 19%

Look at that picture!!! Do not give KCP space!! He will attempt a lay-up IMMEDIATELY!! Among their mediocre 3PTM wingers, Kyle Singler should be their go-to, but Maurice Cheeks has a reputation of incompetence to uphold. They seem committed to giving KCP a chance. Do the same until the Pistons do not.

Jared Dudley – LA Clippers – 3PTM + STL – Owned in 31%

Apparently Jared Dudley was in Movie 43, because he’s the perfect amount of funny for Movie 43. Athlete funny, which, on the hilarity scale, ranks below transcripts of Jeff Dunham “comedy” specials. Also in Movie 43? Corey Brewer. Huh. Dudley has been struggling with his shot, but the Clippers are so thin at the wing, he will continue to get opportunities to shoot himself out of his slump. Expect 3PTM. Expect STL. Expect “fun”. It’s J-DUD!!

Mike Dunleavy – Chicago – 3PTM + PTS + REB + AST + STL – Owned in 20%

Over the past seven days, only 4 players made competitive contributions in all 6 counting categories. One was Dirk Nowitzki. Another was Josh Smith. A third was Mike Dunleavy. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; Mike Dunleavy has great muscle definition. I don’t care who knows it!!

Nick Young – LA Lakers – 3PTM + PTS – Owned in 28%

The Lakers do not employ a healthy PG. Kobe Bryant has been masquerading, because the Lakers wish to entertain. Whether they entertain with success or with “the Hindenburg flying into your drunk uncle’s genitals” failure, spectacle is their BRAND. Kobe Bryant playing the point is entertaining. Kobe Bryant passing to Nick Young is entertaining. Benefit from the entertainment. ROSTER SWAGGY P!!

SF

Marvin Williams – Utah – 3PTM + PTS + REB + AST + STL – Owned in 12%

Marvin “The man that could have been Chris Paul but isn’t Chris Paul, he’s Marvin Williams. GET OVER IT!!” Williams is as offended by his low rate of ownership as Atlanta fans are by the distinct lack of Chris Pauls on their roster. But seriously, that’s not his middle name. It’s Gaye. Isn’t that clever. About as clever as the owners of Marvin Williams in a standard Yahoo Fantasy Basketball League. PICK HIM UP!! HE DOES A LITTLE BIT OF EVERYTHING A LITTLE BIT WORSE THAN CHRIS PAUL!!

Derrick Williams – Sacramento – 3PTM + PTS + REB + STL – Owned in 21%

Williams has been playing well since being traded from Minnesota. With his ability to hit the three, he seems to be a better fit at PF than Jason Thompson. Hopefully he’s able to get enough minutes and shots to stay valuable once Rudy Gay starts doing Rudy Gay things.

Alec Burks – Utah – PTS – Owned in 26%

The Jazz have a number of wing players that only a fantasy baller could love. Alec Burks is one of them. He occasionally scores PTS at an above-average rate. You should pick him up in anticipation of such an episode.

PF/C

Luis Scola – Indiana – PTS + REB – Owned in 26%

Luis Scola is the one on the left. His hair is as straight as his shooting eye, which is as straight as I am when I say that Mike Dunleavy has great muscle definition. It’s a fact. Look it up.

Jordan Hill – LA Laker – PTS + REB – Owned in 26%

Jordan Hill has great hair.

Josh McRoberts – Charlotte – PTS + REB + AST – Owned in 18%

Josh McRoberts plays for Charlotte, but as far as I’m concerned, he will always be a chubby, shaggy-haired scamp from Indiana. Take it from Josh, if you want people to forget you went to Duke, alter your grooming/training habits till you eventually look like you’d wear a T-Shirt in the pool. People can’t hate that guy. WE ARE THAT GUY!! Real talk now, only three C-eligible players have averaged more than 4 APG this season. One is Marc Gasol. The other is Kevin Love. The third? JOSH MCROBERTS!! OWN THIS GUY!!

Here’s the team for December 16-22:

Position	Player
PG	Reggie Jackson
SG	Mike Dunleavy
G	Kirk Hinrich
SF	Marvin Williams
PF	Derrick Williams
F	Alec Burks
C	Josh McRoberts
C	Jordan Hill
UTIL	Luis Scola
UTIL	Jared Dudley
BENCH	Nick Young
BENCH	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
BENCH	Jeremy Lamb

To Drop or Not to Drop: Marc Gasol

Marc Gasol has been inactive since November 22nd, when he sprained his knee. The timetable for his return has not been confirmed and there has been a wide variety of expectations for his comeback; it was initially reported that he would miss 8-10 weeks. However, on November 28th, it was reported that he could be back in only 3-4 weeks. Either way, the question remains; To Drop or Not to Drop?

The big caveat in any of these questions is how you manage your team. If you are an active owner that likes to get production from all 13 roster spots, then this series could be of value to you. However, if you are a set n’ forget owner that depends solely on their 10 starting players for production, then your last three roster spots aren’t as important to you. Stashing injured players does not bother you. Stay and have a read though. Super informative stuff here, all day, every day.

When Gasol went down with his MCL sprain, he was very productive. Based on per game averages, he was the 22nd most valuable player in Yahoo fantasy. This was his line:

FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
.458	.885	0	16.0	7.1	4.3	0.9	1.1	1.7

Gasol went out on November 22nd, or three weeks ago. If the expedited timetable is to be believed, then Gasol will be back in action by next Friday. Obviously if that is the case, DO NOT DROP him. But if Gasol follows the original timetable of 8-10 weeks, then we shouldn’t expect him to be back until January 17th at the earliest, January 31st at the latest. We will split the difference and assume that Gasol will need 9 weeks to return from his injury. Therefore we will expect him to be ready to play on January 24th. At that point in the season, the Grizzlies will have played 40 games; therefore they will have 42 games remaining for Marc Gasol to produce. Based on his per game averages this season, this is what we can expect him to produce in 42 games:

FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
.458	.885	0	672	298.2	180.6	37.8	46.2	71.4

If we were to replace Gasol today, his replacement would have around 61 games to produce for your fantasy team. To match the expected production of Gasol, these are the per game averages we would need from our replacement to justify dropping Gasol:

FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
.458	.885	0	11.02	4.89	2.96	0.62	0.76	1.17

These per game number aren’t that daunting. Taj Gibson, Kosta Koufos, Jason Smith and DeJaun Blair could all replace Gasol’s PTS+REB production. If we had done this when Gasol actually went down, on November 22, then replacement players would have had around 69 games to match Gasol’s production. These would have been the per game averages necessary from Gasol’s replacement to justify a drop:

FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
.458	.885	0	9.74	4.32	2.62	0.55	0.67	1.03

This kind of exercise is especially relevant to Roto leagues. It would be a little more difficult to quantify the potential loss to a H2H team. Gasol went down in Week 4 of H2H fantasy leagues. If he were to miss 9 weeks, he would make a full return in Week 14, so he could contribute for 7 weeks before the playoffs start. Would you trade 16 weeks of borderline replacement level production for a combination of 7 weeks of elite production + 9 weeks of nothing? The answer gives me purpose.

Last Week’s Freaks: The Week in NBA Overachievment

Last week, I thought it would be fun trying my hand at some waiver wire prognostication by predicting which waiver-wire fodder would have productive weeks. To be eligible for endorsement, each player had to be owned in less than 40% of all Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Leagues. They also had to play in the NBA. To be considered a successful endorsement, a player had to meet one of two criteria; one, they had to produce a competitive contribution to the category I had recommended them for, which would be 1/10th of the competitive medians detailed in the Yahoo Competitive Standards Page, and/or two, they had to finish the week ranked 156 or higher. Why 156, you ask? Well in the standard Yahoo Fantasy League, there should 156 players on owners’ rosters, since there are 12 teams to a league, and each team has 13 roster positions. 12 X 13 = 156. Anything above 156? DROPABLE OFFENSE. To the results!!

3PTM

Players Recommended	Players w/ 3+ 3PTMs	Players w/ weekly rank 156 or better
10	7	6

Good week for 3PTM prognostication, but in all honesty, there are more dependable 3PTM producers on the waiver wire then there are in any other category. Here are the results of each player:

Player	Total 3PTM Last Week	Weekly Rank
Khris Middleton	12	12
Randy Foye	9	21
Jordan Hamilton	8	89
Francisco Garcia	5	79
Richard Jefferson	4	155
Patrick Beverly	4	101
Gary Neal	3	218
Nate Robinson	2	209
Marvin Williams	2	235

As you can see, Khris Middleton and Randy Foye both had big weeks, and Jordan Hamilton was also an elite contributor in 3PTMs.

PTS

There are very few players that produce competitive contributions in PTS from week to week. To be competitive in the standard Yahoo League, a team should produce 480 PTS; if you are a set N’ forget owner, you will need at least 48 points from each player started to make 480. Only 67 players scored 48 points or more in the past seven days. By comparison, to be competitive in 3PTM, a team should produce 30 per week. Therefore a competitive contributor would produce 3 or more 3PTM per week (30/10). Last week, 117 players splashed 3 or more 3PTM. Long story short, competitive contributors of PTS are much harder to find on the waiver wire, which is somewhat contrary to popular belief. Here are the players I recommended for potential PTS production:

Player	Total PTS Last Week	Weekly Rank
Alec Burks	67	44
Khris Middleton	66	12
Glen Davis	57	222
Reggie Jackson	55	38
Nate Robinson	54	209
Randy Foye	52	21
Michael Beasley	38	110
Jordan Hamilton	36	89
Richard Jefferson	23	155
Gary Neal	22	318
Marvin Williams	10	235
Caron Butler	0	411

As you can see, only 6 of the 12 players I recommended made a competitive contribution in PTS but 7 of 12 were ranked 156 or higher, or above replacement level. Alec Burks should be a consistent contributor of PTS for the remainder of the season. Reggie Jackson is a must own in my opinion; he’s been producing for weeks now and looks like he can’t stop, won’t stop, Miley Cyrus.

REB

Big men are also hard to come by on the waiver wire. There were limited options for REB this week, so I only recommended 5 players as potential sources. Here they are:

Player	Total REB Last Week	Weekly Rank
Timofey Mozgov	36	94
Glen Davis	20	222
Andrew Nicholson	16	105
Marvin Williams	5	235
Zaza Pachulia	6	205

Mozgov had a monster week, and along with Kosta Koufos, qualify as Europeans that should be rostered in all leagues. Marvin Williams and Zaza Pachulia both missed time during the week and kind of torpedoed my hit-rate. Only 2 players made a competitive contribution of 19 or more. Just 2 were ranked 156 or higher too.

AST

Assists are the scarcest stat available during the season. Draft or die. I only found two players available that I thought could make a competitive contribution of 10 or more:

Player	AST Total Last Week	Weekly Rank
Norris Cole	16	145
Mo Williams	14	179

Cashed in on both for competitive contributions, but went 1/2 for beating replacement level. Mo Williams should be rostered in more leagues; he’s the first man off the bench for the Fantasy All-Star Blazers. Seriously, each player in their starting line-up can be expected to show up in the top 50 week after week.

STL

Making a competitive contribution in STL does not appear hard, since a player needs only to make 3 STL to be a competitive contributor. I recommended 4 players to be good sources of STL last week. Here they are:

Player	STL Total Last Week	Weekly Rank
Patrick Beverly	6	101
Mo Harkless	4	104
Thabo Sefolosha	3	143
Shane Battier	2	185

3/4 recommendations cashed in STL last week. Patrick Beverly should be owned in more leagues for his ability to produce STL alone. If Jeremy Lin continues to have injury issues, his ownability will increase. Pounce now. I love Thabo Sefolosha in weeks that the Thunder play 4 weeks. He is a consistent contributor across multiple categories.

BLK

Like REB, BLK are hard to find because good big men are so scarce on the waiver wire. I only recommended Timofey Mozgov as a good source of BLK last week.

Player	BLK Total Last Week	Weekly Rank
Timofey Mozgov	4	37

A team should try to produce 22 BLK per week to be competitive. Therefore, a player would be considered a competitive contributor if they produce 2 or more BLK per week. Mozgov produced 4 and ranked 37 for the week so I’m batting 1.000 in BLK baby. Putting it all together, here’s how I did for the week:

Category Specialists Recommended	Players that made a competitive contribution	Recommendation Success Rate	Players that ranked 156 or better	Recommendation Success Rate
34	21	62%	20	59%

Week 7 Waiver Wire Challenge

Each week, I will release a list of players I think will overachieve in the preceding week of NBA action. Here are this week’s overachievers. Today, I thought it would be fun to choose players from that list to compile a 13 man fantasy roster, in order to see what kind of production you could wring from of a team full of forgottens. Here it is:

Position	Player
PG	Reggie Jackson – Oklahoma City
SG	Jared Dudley – Los Angeles Clippers
G	Kirk Hinrich – Chicago
SF	Thabo Sefolosha – Oklahoma City
PF	Glen Davis – Orlando
F	Jason Thompson – Sacramento
C	Boris Diaw – San Antonio
C	Kosta Koufos – Memphis
UTIL	Mo Williams – Portland
UTIL	Mike Dunleavy – Chicago
BENCH	Draymond Green – Golden State
BENCH	Jermaine O’Neal – Golden State
BENCH	Marvin Williams – Utah

NBA Heat Check: The Week in Hand Temperature

HOT

Russell Westbrook – Oklahoma City – Week Rank #17 – 33/69 FGs, 14/15 FTs, 7 3PTM, 87 PTS, 19 REB, 29 AST, 6 STL, 19 TOs

Westbrook has had a slow start to his season since returning from injury. In the five full weeks since his return, Westbrook has had weekly rankings of 230, 91, 210 and 77. He has been averaging 5.9 APG, down from 7.4 last year, and has been converting his FTs at an uncharacteristic .745, down from .811 for his career. He’s also turning the ball over at a career-high rate, averaging 4.2 TO/36 minutes. 

Despite his struggles, Westbrook broke out in a big way this past week. Over the Thunder’s 4 GP, Russell made competitive contributions in 5 of 6 counting categories, earning elite status in 3PTM, AST and STL. 

Brandon Jennings – Detroit – Week Rank #10 – 27/61 FGs, 20/23 FTs, 10 3PTM, 84 PTS, 13 REB, 27 AST, 11 STL, 1 BLK, 22 TOs

Brandon Jennings had a quietly effective fantasy season in his first year with Detroit. He has had weekly rankings of 119, 58, 117 and 74, which is surprisingly steady for a player that consistently shoots around .400. This past week, Jennings put together top 10 numbers, providing elite contributions in 3PTM, AST and STL. 

Robin Lopez – Portland – 17/32 FGs, 8/8 FTs, 42 PTS, 36 REB, 4 AST, 8 BLK, 2 TO

Lopez has been a model of efficiency in his first season with the Blazers, earning weekly ranks of 157, 65, 24, 141 and 20. He has been a reliable contributor of REB and BLK. Buy now before his value becomes common knowledge. 

COLD

Jonas Valanciunas – Toronto – Weekly Rank #207 – 10/23 FGs, 24 PTS, 22 REB, 4 AST, 1 BLK

Jonas improvement has not been as automatic as expected. Despite receiving more MPG than last season, his raw per game averages are actually down in both per game FTs and BLKs. Hopefully the jettison of Rudy Gay will quicken his development. 

Pau Gasol – Los Angeles – Weekly Rank #175 – 9/26 FGs, 8/9 FTs, 26 PTS, 15 REB, 5 AST, 2 STL, 1 BLK, 3 TO

Gasol’s FG% has fallen off a cliff the past two years, down from .501 in 11-12 to .466 in 12-13 to .412 this season. 

Tony Parker – San Antonio – Weekly Rank #198 – 13/25 FGs, 28 PTS, 4 REB, 9 AST, 5 TO

The Spurs only played one game last week, due to your standard Mexican elevator fire, but Parker’s struggles have been a season long problem. Since Tony has never been a consistent source of 3PTM, his fantasy value was primarily due to his efficiency, AST and STL. His FG% is still PG-elite but his FT% has plummeted from .845 last year to .697 in 2013-2014. His AST and STL numbers are down as well, which goes a long way to explaining his weekly rankings, 84. 257. 105, 119 and 198. 

 

How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love Dwight Howard

As of right now, Dwight Howard is ranked 182 in Yahoo Fantasy. If he were any other player, this would be a droppable offense. However, I am an optimist; I choose not to dwell on the negatives, but instead focus on the positives. What does Dwight do well? Oh, there are so many things. As of today, he has grabbed more rebounds than any other player in the NBA. Only six players have blocked more shots than he has. Only 22 players have scored as many points as he has. Among qualified players, he is 6th in FG%.

The singular, overwhelming, monstrosity of a negative? His sense of humor. Obviously not mine though because it’s FT%!!! But you knew that. A couple weeks ago, I tried to measure the relative impact of D12 on FT% and Carmelo Anthony, who at the time, took the most FGA per game, on FG%. I found that Melo’s had a very small effect on the average team’s FG%. Dwight, however, essentially carpetbombed his owner’s hopes for FT% victory; I found that he would bring the average team’s FT% down by nearly 10%. From .800 to .700 bro. Big time drop. No joke drop bro.

Owning Dwight then becomes a personality test. Do you take D12’s putrid ass lemons and make lemonade or do you trade him for Kosta Koufos because you’re scared? Because goddamnit, I will not have Kosta Koufos on my team! (except for the next couple weeks; great stop-gap in Marc Gasol’s absence) But to embrace Dwight requires you to accept a simple truth; you will not win FT%. EVER. Sad day, but also liberating because you can stop caring about FT%! Say goodbye to your FT% fever dreams. Sleep easy tonight!

The choice to abandon FT%, therefore, should alter your roster strategy. Since you pay no mind to FT%, certain players’ will become more valuable to you than they are to other owners. Owners that are still trying to remain competitive in FT% might be willing to part with their FT Trolls for lesser value. Since my FT% liberation, I’ve been actively pursuing a number of players to pair up with Dwight. The players I have been pursuing the hardest have been DeMarcus Cousins, Blake Griffin, Josh Smith, DeAndre Jordan and Andre Drummond in order to consolidate my dominance in other categories, whether it be PTS + REB + AST + STL + BLK. All of these players have their own unique strengths but they’re all multi-category contributors. My favorite piece of trade bait: Ryan Anderson. Super overrated and one-dimensional, but I’ll hit that up later.

This Week in NBA Over-Achievement

Here are my NBA overachievers for this week, broken down by their category of specialization. An overachiever has to be owned in less than 40% of all Yahoo Fantasy Leagues to qualify, because science:

PTS – Randy Foye (32%), Nate Robinson (33%), Jordan Hamilton (1%), Michael Beasley (7%), Caron Butler (17%), Gary Neal (7%), Khris Middleton (6%), Reggie Jackson (18%), Glen Davis (36%), Marvin Williams (17%), Richard Jefferson (4%), Alec Burks (14%)

3PTM – Randy Foye (32%), Nate Robinson (33%), Jordan Hamilton (1%), Patrick Beverley (28%), F. Garcia (7%) Caron Butler (17%) Gary Neal (7%) Khris Middleton (6%) Marvin Williams (17%) Richard Jefferson (4%)

AST – Norris Cole (4%) Mo Williams (16%)

REB – Timofey Mozgov (14%) Zaza Pachulia (13%) Glen Davis (36%) Andrew Nicholson (7%) Marvin Williams (17%)

BLK – Timofey Mozgov (14%)

STL – Patrick Beverely (28%) Shane Battier (7%) Thabo Sefolosha (11%) Mo Harkless (36%)

At the end of the week, I’ll look back and see which players did in fact overachieve and which players merely achieved.

Next Week’s Freaks: Predicting the Future in NBA Overachievement

After each week of NBA action, I have been celebrating the greatest feats in fantasy over achievement. If Andrea Bargnani is going to block 9 shots in a single week, then god-damn it, he deserves a little recognition. Today, I will look ahead to next week, the week of December 9-15, to try to identify the overachievers of the future in the six counting categories, PTS, 3PTM, REB, AST, STL and BLK. To be considered an overachiever, a player’s ability must be in question. Therefore, only players owned in 40% or less of all Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Leagues can qualify as a potential overachiever. At the end of each week, I will look back at my prognostications to see whether a player did indeed overachieve, or if they instead merely achieved.  To the predictions!

 

PTS + REB – Glen Davis, Orlando – Owned in 35%

Big Baby will raise the roof next week, and with it, the ceiling for your team’s point production. HEY-O!! But in all honesty, Big Baby should be owned and started in pertineer every leagues.

 

PTS – Boris Diaw, San Antonio – Owned in 10%

Chubby Boris Diaw is offended that 1) His name can’t be mentioned without an allusion to his girth 2) He isn’t owned in more Yahoo Fantasy Basketball Leagues!! He is a fairly reliable producer in many categories and with Tiago Splitter recovering from injury, he should get more minutes next week. Expect big things from the big man!!

 

PTS – Reggie Jackson, Oklahoma City – Owned in 18%

Mr. December in the Thunder Charity Calender should be fairly productive next week. He might be in line for a start replacing Russell Westbrook, since the Thunder have a back to back on the schedule.

 

3PTM – Jared Dudley, Los Angelos Clippers, Owned in 32%

Big Dud the Stud should be a reliable source of 3PTM next week. The Clip Show has 4 games next week, and without J.J. Redick, they’ll be looking to Dud to provide spacing from his three point splash pad.

 

3PTM + PTS + REB – Marvin Williams, Utah – Owned in 18%

The “Man that Could have been Chris Paul but is instead Marvin Williams” has actually had a pretty productive season, averaging over 10 PTS, 5 REB and 1.5 3PTM per game. The Jazz are actually loaded with perfectly decent swingmen, from Marvin to Richard Jefferson to Alec Burks, take your pick, they’re all marginal producers. My moneys on Marv the money man however.

 

3PTM – Mike Dunleavy, Chicago Bulls – Owned in 9%

Look at the definition on Dunleavy! Damn, what a pasty stud. Dunleavy seems like he would have been a perfect fit for the Jordan-era Bulls, splashing 3PTM, doing nothing else, crying due to emotional torment. Howver, next week, he should be a decent producer of 3PTM, since the Bulls are desperate for offensive production in the absence of Derrick Rose and Jimmy Butler.

 

REB + BLK – Kosta Koufos, Memphis – Owned in 30%

Is Kosta the new Primoz Brezec? Of course!! He should also have a pretty great week, by Primoz successor standards anyway, in the absence of Marc Gasol and with Z-Bo suffering from ingrown toenails, because Z-Bo is a hoarder or something. A 30 REB, 8 BLK week isn’t out of the question for the big glue.

 

REB – Jason Thompson, Sacramento – Owned in 5%

Jason Thompson or Patrick Patterson, take your pick, either one should be a reliable contributor to your REB bottom line. Throw in a Boobie injury and Thompson could have a monster week.

 

AST – Kirk Hinrich, Chicago – Owned in 34%

Nick Collison life partner and wrist-tattoo enthusiast Kirk Hinrich should not be available in this many leagues. Considering how hard it is to find AST production on the waiver-wire, Hinrich is a must-add for those in need of a decent PG. His percentages aren’t great, but I can live with them if he’s dropping 5 dimes a night with a 3 to boot.

 

AST – Mo Williams, Portland – Owned in 16%

Perennial Winner of Best Costume at the John Legends of the Fall Party, Mo Williams should have a big week. Like Hinrich, he is averaging around 5 APG with a 3; again, would be a nice pick-up for owners looking for PG help.

 

STL – Draymond Green, Golden State – Owned in 1%

If you can get past the underwhelming 5 PPG, Draymond Green has a lot to offer. 4 RPG, 1 3PG, 1 SPG, 1BPG, Green would be a great addition for any owner looking for a well-rounded line. The damn 1% get all the spoils once again!!

 

STL – Thabo Sefolosha, Oklahoma City – Owned in 11%

Like Draymond Green, there is nothing specifically spectacular about Thabo’s line. He’s an all-around grinder and currently ranked 149th in Yahoo. He’s a must play in 4 game weeks. Like next week guys!!

 

BLK – Jermaine O’Neal, Golden State – Owned in 1%

Halftime Orator Extraordinaire Jermaine O’Neal is another Golden State 1%er with some value next week. I find that productive Big Men are hard to come by on the waiver-wire, so if you’re in the market for some REB + BLK, look no further.

To Drop or Not to Drop: Anthony Davis

The Brow is down. The brow is down. Another sad weekend of injury mayhem, with JJ, Paul Pierce, Jordan Farmar, potentially Pau Gasol, and most importantly, the brow, Anthony Davis, all suffering long-term injuries of varying severity. The timetable for the brow’s return has not been released, but I will try to provide a tipping point for owners to consider dropping him. Yesterday I determined that JJ Redick was not worth a roster spot since his lost production could be replaced by a realistic pick-up on the waiver-wire. Today, I will try to determine how much time the Brow would have to lose for an owner to consider replacing him with Jason Smith, the brow’s successor in the Pellies’ line-up and a player that can be expected to be available in most Yahoo leagues (Owned in 20%) Here are Davis’ per game averages:

FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
.498	.846	0	18.8	10.2	1.6	1.6	3.6	1.4

Just filthy. By comparison, here are Jason Smith’s per game averages this season:

FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
.484	.846	0	10.4	5.5	0.8	0.4	1.1	0.6

Now let us have a look at what an injured Anthony Davis can be expected to produce the rest of the year if he misses 10 games, 20 games, 30 games, 40 games, 50 games? For reference, the Pellies have 65 games left on their schedule:

Games Lost	Games Left	FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
10	55	.498	.846	0	1034	561	88	88	198	77
20	45	.498	.846	0	846	459	72	72	162	63
30	35	.498	.846	0	658	357	56	56	126	49
40	25	.498	.846	0	470	255	40	40	90	35
50	15	.498	.846	0	282	153	24	24	54	21

Now by comparison, this is what we can expect Jason Smith to produce for the remainder of the season, if he plays all 65 of the Pellies remaining games, based on his current per game averages:

FG%	FT%	3PTM	PTS	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO
.484	.846	0	676	357.5	52	26	71.5	39

As you can see, Jason Smith’s will produce as many PTS + REB in an entire season as the Brow will produce in 35 games. Therefore, I would advise owners to drop Anthony Davis for Jason Smith if he is expected to miss more than 30 games, which would equate to a 2 month recovery time at the very least, with an expected return date of the start of February. If he expected back before February, stash him on the roster. For climatic purposes

If out for less than 2 months: STASH

If out for more than 2 months: DROP

Last Week’s Freaks: The Week in NBA Overachievement

81 PTS – Rodney Stuckey – 66% Owned in Yahoo

Big Stuck Dawg played like a boss last week, racking up 81 pts in four games. Surprisingly, it seemed that a majority of people actually anticipated this production; he is somehow owned in 66% of all Yahoo leagues. This comes as quite the personal shock; not once have I thought of Rodney Stuckey. I swear to god, I’ve never thought of Rodney Stuckey, but now that I’ve seen his collage of  Google images, I think I can see every person I’ve ever known in his face. Rodney Stuckey looks like everyone because everyone is Rodney Stuckey. New proverb.

15 3PTM – Martell Webster – 63% Owned in Yahoo

The Chubby Schadenfraude has again benefited from another’s misfortune; first Trevor Ariza and now Bradley Beal! It does seem like if you are between the heights of 6’0″ and 6’8″, are employed by the Washington Wizards and can routinely splash 3PT shots, you will have a full and happy season. Sorry Jan Vesely! Two out of three!! Soon to be one out of three; I’ll let you decide what category he will soon be disqualified from.

43 REB – DeJaun Blair – 17% Owned in Yahoo

My man Big Bad Care Bear DeJaun Blair subsisted on a healthy portion of rebounds this past week, despite the general public’s lack of interest or awareness. BBCB Dejaun Blair has a similar disinterest in anything that does not involve collecting balls that have not done what is intended of them; guy got more REB than PTS people! He loves REB!

27 AST – Jordan Crawford – 51% Owned in Yahoo

Jordan Crawford is for real. In fantasy. Jordan Crawford is a real fantasy player. Jordan Crawford has had weekly rankings of 30, 59, 70 and 52. The season is 5 weeks old. PAUSE…FOR…REACTION. Still a chucker though!!

11 STL – Tony Allen – 47% Owned in Yahoo

Tony had the third most STL in the NBA over the past seven days. That sentence could be used as a template for Tony Allen achievement descriptions. Your welcome, J-School.

11 BLK – Andrea Bargnani – 73% Owned in Yahoo

The words Andrea, Bargnani and overachiement have never been part of the same sentence in the history of communication. However, his unprecedented history of underachievement has now rendered the bar for overachievement SO LOW, it is now a possibility once again. REJOICE BASKETBALL POETS!! NEW SENTENCE CONSTRUCTION AWAITS!!